I just wasted about an hour and a half. I was trying to determine how many customers Disney World had last year. It’s getting harder to find official facts about anything these days. Encyclopedias are gone, and nobody reads almanacs anymore. Those massive and thoroughly researched reference materials have all but disappeared, replaced by open forums such as Yahoo, Wiki Answers, and Squidoo. All of those names sound a little unreliable to me, and when I see them, I sometimes think of a lecture on nuclear physics being delivered by one of the characters from the Flintstones. That impression only intensifies when I see that the responses are rated according to how many votes they got from other viewers. I’m not sure how anyone decides which answers to support, because most of us have access to the same vague sources as everyone else.
In the case of Disney, the company seems pretty secretive about things like annual ticket sales. That’s why we end up turning to those other websites in the first place. But do we trust voters to use good judgment? In 2003, Arnold Schwarzenegger was elected governor of California, the country’s most populous state. He got more than four million votes. This is a man who made his living by lifting weights, slathering his body with oil, and punching people in the face.
To tell you the truth, I’m not even that interested in Disney World. I’ve been there five times, and that’s more than enough. But I’m drawn to the whole issue of how many people do go, because it hovers near the very core of this probability thing.
Disney World apparently attracts about eighty thousand visitors a day. Or maybe it’s thirty thousand. I never did find out. The point is, even for a teeth-rattling, completely unpleasant ride like Space Mountain, you might wait in line for two hours. A family of four could spend a hundred and fifty dollars on three meals and some snacks. And unless you live in Florida, you have a long trip to get there. You’ll need hotel reservations, at least a week off from your job or school, and a lot of planning. Yet something close to the population of Fairbanks, Alaska, shows up at this place every single day.
Given the amount of time, money, and sheer hassle a Disney vacation involves — and the fact that they’ve been open since 1971 — I would expect that every once in a while, someone would get out of their car in the Peter Pan parking lot and be the only one there. But this has never happened. Somehow, for every date on the calendar, tens of thousands of people decide that’s when they’re going, and then take care of all the necessary details in order to make the trip. It’s as though they went to a huge meeting somewhere, with each person choosing one or more of those dates, and then communicating with everyone else at the meeting to make sure they maintain daily attendance levels within a certain range.
Obviously, that isn’t how it works. Where would they have such a meeting? There probably wouldn’t be enough chairs, and I can only imagine the line for the women’s bathroom. But some invisible force is influencing the results. It must be probability.
Once again, how does it work?
I guess it has something to do with the large number of people who want to go – and the relatively small number of days there are in a year. When I go to an amusement park, I look around and wonder, “What are the chances that all of these people would come here on the same day?” But, as the probability experts tell me, that’s the wrong question. I should be asking, “What are the chances that this many people would come here on the same day?” The slight shift in perspective gets me a little closer to an acceptable answer, but not quite there.This idea of a weird, telepathic contact among complete strangers, and an equally mysterious connection between unrelated events, seems to affect many areas of business, as well as life in general. At any point during the baseball season, for example, I can guess with a high degree of accuracy how many hits and home runs the league leaders have, and what their approximate batting averages are. But why those things are so predictable is another story.
Direct-mail marketing poses a similar puzzle. Large-scale mailings are considered successful if they get a two-percent response. I’ve experienced this. If I send out a thousand pieces, I hear back from about twenty of the recipients. But how do those twenty know they’re the ones who are supposed to buy? More frustrating, how do the other nine hundred and eighty know they’re not supposed to?
Probability, then, seems to fall into one of two broad categories: Our attempts at measuring the physical movements of inanimate objects, such as coins and clouds, and forecasting the decisions and actions of living things, such as racehorses and human beings.
Actually, I wish it were that simple. But life is more random than we realize. At least mine is. And while it would be nice to believe we can plunge into the chaos and emerge with real answers, that seems about as likely as Barney Rubble earning his PhD in quantum mechanics. It could happen, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
shoreacres
May 14, 2013
I can tell you this. The probability that “probable cause” has soared into the top ten phrases being used in D.C. is pretty good.
And as for Disney attractions, some folks have found a way to beat the odds .
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bronxboy55
May 15, 2013
I hadn’t heard about that Disney scheme, Linda. I wish I could say I’m surprised, but it takes more audacity all the time to evoke that response. People love shortcuts and special privileges, even if they don’t deserve them.
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She's a Maineiac
May 14, 2013
I think you’ll get to the answer one day. Not me. The main things I wonder at Disney are: why are the lines to the women’s bathroom always 50 times longer? Why is a hamburger 10 bucks? Why do we go on vacation only to wish we could hurry up and go back home?
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bronxboy55
May 15, 2013
We must filter out all the unpleasant memories from the last time. It’s this selective amnesia that causes us to look forward to something we’ve already done, and didn’t really like.
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"HE WHO"
May 14, 2013
I just now read part 1 of Probable Cause and left a comment. I’ll repeat it here, if you don’t mind and add just a few words. “It seems to me that determining the probability of an event happening requires enormous numbers of tests or subjects, like a medical study or a survey, in order to reduce the margin or error to as close to zero as possible. I’m thinking of the coin flip or gambling. In the normal scope of things, because of the number of tests required, knowing the probability is virtually useless unless the perpetrator wants to use the information (bend the statistics) to accomplish some less than altruistic purpose.” A waste of time. But I do believe in “Luck”. Luck takes a lot less time to kick in than probability. And as far as Disney World goes, unless you are looking to buy a big block of shares in the company, who cares?
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bronxboy55
May 15, 2013
I think luck and probability are very close to the same idea. There are all kinds of crazy, random things happening everywhere and all the time. People bump into those crazy things just because we’re all moving around. When we like the thing we’ve bumped into, we call that good luck. When it hurts or annoys us, we call it bad luck.
The Disney World question is something I think about a lot, especially when I find myself in a group of people that will never be together again — a movie theater audience, for example. I can’t help it, and that’s probably why I can’t afford to buy a huge block of shares, or even a few.
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"HE WHO"
May 15, 2013
I think your definition of good and bad luck is right on. Luck could well be of the same genus as probability. But luck takes no thinking. It just happens.(Sure, I know you can supposedly make your own luck by working hard.) That’s the kind of official fact I like. But back to Disney World…they have years of sales records to go by. At this point in its life cycle, all questions have been answered and it’s a no brainer for the well educated, experienced business people that run the place. Send them an e-mail and see if they will answer your question.
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bronxboy55
May 16, 2013
Maybe probability is the scientific step that followed superstition. For a long time, we tried to generate good luck with rituals and special objects. Then we began to use math to see if we could measure and predict luck. But I don’t think we’ve abandoned superstition yet.
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charlywalker
May 14, 2013
PROBable and PROBability are PROBlems that PROBably I had to fight with in a Math class…I failed..two times….
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bronxboy55
May 15, 2013
Sorry I brought it up, CW. Are you going to put me on PROBation?
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Chichina
May 14, 2013
Here’s one for you…… Years ago I was living in Fort Smith in the NWT. I had a best friend named Libby. Libby had a photo of her and I on her fridge. One day she had a party, and a female friend of hers (whom I had never met) dropped over. The friend happened to glance up and look at the fridge. I doubt that she studied the photo of Libby and I very closely. Also note that I had not been living in this community any longer, so the friend would never have seen me in this particular community, with the exception of the photo on the fridge.
Fast forward three or four years. I am sitting at an outdoor cafe on Whyte Avenue in Edmonton. I don’t live in Edmonton, and am visiting a friend of mine. It is a summer day, and the sun is shining. The street is full of people walking by. I am wearing sun-glasses due to the brightness of the day. Suddenly a female I have never met before walks up to me and asks, ” Are you Sonia?”
Turns out that it is the friend of Libby who once saw a picture of me on Libby’s fridge. Despite never having met me in person, despite the fact that I was wearing sun-glasses and therefore did not closely resemble the photo, despite being in a city I did not live in, which was not a place this individual would naturally associate me with, despite the fact that the street was thronging with people, this girl managed to pick me out in a crowd.
What are the chances?
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bronxboy55
May 15, 2013
I think the typical probability expert would say that we should expect to run into people, and that coincidences aren’t unusual at all. But that’s definitely a weird story. The only explanation I can come up with is that this woman had spent the past four years going up to everyone she saw and saying, “Are you Sonia?” In that case, she had to find you sooner or later.
Let me know if I can clear up any other mysteries for you.
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rangewriter
May 14, 2013
Probability makes my head hurt. 😉
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bronxboy55
May 15, 2013
You’re lucky. Everything makes my head hurt.
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earthriderjudyberman
May 14, 2013
I am fascinated by Chichina’s chance meeting which must defy all of the odds. I used to ask people – after they told me where they were from – if they knew so and so who also lived in the same city.
They must have thought I fell off the turnip truck. It was pretty hysterical when you consider a place like NYC with 8-million people. But, hey, anything’s possible.
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bronxboy55
May 16, 2013
Judy, the chances of one person knowing another specific individual are tiny. But it’s probably not so unlikely that there will be some common acquaintance. I agree with you about Chichina’s story, though. It’s amazing.
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lostnchina
May 14, 2013
I’m not much on statistics, Charles, but all I know is that the probability of your getting a lot of LIKES and responses to this post is high. As for the lines to the women’s bathrooms – didn’t you know we just all purposefully congregate in there for dreadfully long periods of time, so that some blogger – or anyone – might notice and make it a running joke.
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bronxboy55
May 16, 2013
On one or two occasions, I’ve caught a glimpse of the inside of a women’s bathroom. I’m sure I saw a couch in there, and someone walking around with a tray, serving appetizers. Meanwhile, the men’s room had no mirrors or soap, and one of the sinks was missing.
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lostnchina
May 16, 2013
You’ve found us out. There’s really nothing better than to lounge on an overstuffed couch in the women’s bathroom while eating cheese puffs and drinking tepid champagne.
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bitchontheblog
May 14, 2013
Charles, I try not to dwell on probability. It raises hopes and expectations where there should be none or few.
I have been to Walt Disney (Florida) only once (ca 1984). Which makes me a negligent parent since my son was born many years later. I have no idea how long father of future son and I queued at Space Mountain. Time is no concept to me. I can bore in a minute. Yet the boring doesn’t register with me for hours. I hate heights. I hate rides. I am risk averse. And yes, no sooner was it over I queued again.
U
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bronxboy55
May 16, 2013
You went on Space Mountain more than once? I love roller coasters, but didn’t like that it was in the dark. When you can’t see the hills and turns coming, it’s hard to brace yourself, and you get pretty banged up. At least I did.
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scribblechic
May 15, 2013
I prefer chance over probability, the mere suggestion of complicated algorithms makes me uncomfortable.
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bronxboy55
May 17, 2013
Again, if chance and luck are the same thing, I think probability is just our way of attaching numbers to them. But I don’t want to make you uncomfortable, so I’m not going to say that.
I continue to enjoy your blog. This is just the latest of many posts that have made me think:
http://scribblechic.com/2013/05/16/integrity-intelligence/
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scribblechic
May 17, 2013
I believe the probability of such an unspoken comment causing me distress is highly unlikely given the chance a compliment will accompany the reference. Thank you!
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morristownmemos by Ronnie Hammer
May 15, 2013
You have discovered one of life’s great imponderable questions. Where are the three wise men when we need them?
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bronxboy55
May 17, 2013
I believe they went to Disney World.
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John
May 15, 2013
This reminds me of the old question, “What would happen if everyone decided to go to the same restaurant on the same night?” A statistician (they are the ones who actually study Probability, right?) would counter with something like, “The odds against that occurring are so astronomical that it is nothing to be concerned about. Indeed, one would be foolish to worry about such stuff.” Okay, fine. That sounds nice and logical and all, although I could have done without the snippy commentary, Mr. (or Ms.) Probability Person. However, as well reasoned as that may sound it does nothing to explain why this is the case and, more importantly, quell the anxiety which stems from the fear the restaurant would run out of dessert rather fast on the night it happened. You know, the night I choose to go there.
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bronxboy55
May 18, 2013
I recently had a mildly hostile encounter with a sales clerk at an automotive store. I wanted to get my snow tires taken off, but the place doesn’t make appointments. I showed up four times, and all four times — at various times in the afternoon — he said they were too busy. Sensing my frustration, he finally suggested that I come back early in the morning, when they open. “That’s what we tell everyone,” he said. And I said, “If that’s what you tell everyone, then I’m going to come back early in the morning and you still won’t be able to change my tires, because everyone will be here.”
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Elyse
May 15, 2013
I have been faking a reasonable amount of knowledge about probability for the 10 years I’ve been in my current job.
What are the chances I’ve fooled everyone?
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bronxboy55
May 18, 2013
Ten years? I’d say the chances are excellent, Elyse.
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mamanne
May 16, 2013
If you figure that out, explain this to me: Why is it, when you are at the market or any store, there can be one person or 50 people in the store, all having been there a different amount of time… however, they will ALL go to the check-out line at the same time! Yeesh.
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bronxboy55
May 20, 2013
I’ve noticed the very same thing. But that’s really what randomness is. If people showed up at the check-out in evenly-spaced intervals, it could only happen if someone were there regulating the flow. Otherwise, you get mad rushes and lulls. It makes sense, but it’s still frustrating.
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Allan Douglas (@AllanDouglasDgn)
May 16, 2013
Ahhh… THAT explains it! Thanks, Charles.
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bronxboy55
May 20, 2013
Did I explain something, Allan? I didn’t mean to.
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silkpurseproductions
May 17, 2013
Probability is a one of those conundrums that always makes me give my head a shake. Especially when it comes to lining up. When crossing the border into the US there can be eight booths open with all lines appearing to be approximately the same length. The probability of He-Who picking the line that immediately comes to an abrupt halt while the other lines continue to move past us is pretty high. Somehow I know, no matter what line he gets in this will happen. The same happens at the supermarket. As soon as I become the very next person to cash out the cashier puts her light to flashing and starts paging someone from some department to come for a price check. I am also the person who finally gives up on a slot machine and as I walk away I here the bells and whistles go off for the person who just sat in my seat. In that case we attribute that to, “if you didn’t have bad luck, you would have no luck at all”.
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bronxboy55
May 20, 2013
I learned my lesson in a casino once, and I’ve never had an urge to try again. As for the border crossings and the supermarket, they’re a little less avoidable, and I tend to have similar experiences. Probability theorists will tell us that we’re using selective memory, and that we’re failing to register those times when we sail right through. Easy for them to say.
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souldipper
May 17, 2013
Probability…do I dare ask you about why some videos go viral?
And odds. I still don’t understand “odds” though different people have tried to explain them to me. I used to think the concept could not get through the dyslexic channels in the Corpus Callosum.
However, I now strongly suspect the “explainers” don’t understand it either.
Please don’t think your post has anything whatsoever to do with my suspicions…
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bronxboy55
May 20, 2013
Amy, I’ve repeatedly asked about the viral video thing. What is the force that continues to push something that, often, doesn’t deserved to be pushed? Nobody knows. Apparently, it happens because of some mathematical property of the universe, but there isn’t necessarily an identifiable reason for any one video to accomplish the feat. And when it comes to human performance, the use of odds is the product of someone’s subjective opinion. Look what happens at a horse race when a lot of people start betting one a certain horse — the odds drop, as if the horse somehow got faster.
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Chris
May 17, 2013
I was doing a little blog hopping..what? No one does that but me?? I found your blog via Celia’s blog and wasn’t planning on commenting or signing up both of which I’m going to do…hmmm, what is the probability of that you ask? Beeee cause, I ended up laughing (out loud) to myself and when that happens I think it needs to happen more often and hence the reason, I am signing up….for more good, old fashioned, does your body good….Laughter!!
Thank-you!
Chris (in Washington state)
PS. I ended up reading many more of your posts and ended up laughing even more!!
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bronxboy55
May 20, 2013
Thank you, Chris (and Celia). I appreciate the kind words, and look forward to hearing from you again.
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marymtf
May 17, 2013
Charles, the probability of my turning up at Disneyland any time soon is, as they used to say in my country, Buckley’s and none (Nunn). It seems to me from the way that you describe it to have started out with all the right intentions then morphed into a money making enterprise and a nightmare for parents.
Not quite like our Royal Melbourne Show, but that’s what I thought of when I read your post. The Show is run by the Royal Agricultural Society of Victoria and in 1845 the main motive behind the Show was to give us city slickers an insight into rural industry. You can still find examples of it if you look but the emphasis these days is more about pushing show bags on the young that are filled with junk which you toss out the moment you get home. They are horrendously expensive as is the entry fee as is the junk food. It’s torture. Thankfully, the fun of the Show belongs to my grandchildren’s parents now. Good luck with your mob and Disneyland. PS no use yearning after reference materials. That’s old person talk.
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bronxboy55
May 20, 2013
As if to prove your point, and mine, I looked up “Buckley and Nunn,” and the first results were from Wikipedia and Wiktionary (whatever that is). I may be old, but I miss the days when information was triple-checked by people who did actual research. As for Disney, I think it’s always been about the money, but they used to be better at getting us to think it wasn’t.
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marymtf
May 20, 2013
I don’t think there’s anything wrong with being old and remembering when. Our memories are living proof that things were better once if anyone cares to tap them (some things anyhow).
You’ve possibly noticed that I’m always maundering on about the price we pay for the sort of convenience that progress brings. We used to value words, now we contract them. We used to type letters using our ten fingers, now we tap, tap with one, which I suppose is why we contract our words. Even journalists (most of them) Google information for their articles. Google is useful but it’s like instant mashed potatoes (did you have them in Canada? You just add water and mix). Awfully convenient if you were too busy to peel a potato and you could tell what you were eating, but the dish lacked texture and substance.
ps A friend mentioned to me once that it’s possible to buy books by weight these days. Oh, dear how depressing. And what a sobersides I’ve become in my old age, one of the down sides of growing old.
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bronxboy55
May 23, 2013
We’ve had instant mashed potatoes here for decades, but I was unaware of books being sold by weight. I’d also never heard the word sobersides before. Great word — I don’t even have to look it up. Thanks, Mary.
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nerdinthebrain
May 20, 2013
I’m just glad I was at the secret meeting of the giggledy-jillion people who decided to never, ever, ever go to Disney. 🙂
Great post, as usual! I do love to ponder probability.
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bronxboy55
May 23, 2013
Why am I never invited to those secret meetings?
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Philster999
May 20, 2013
You had me at “I’m not sure how anyone decides which answers to support, because most of us have access to the same vague sources as everyone else.” Hmm… Makes you wonder what the internet is doing to the idea of truth. Or should I say Truth?
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bronxboy55
May 23, 2013
I used to do a lot of fact-checking for publishers. The rule was, if you could find something in three different sources, it was probably true. This was fifteen years ago, and I questioned the rule even then. Now it almost makes me laugh.
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Bruce
May 23, 2013
Great read. I like the vision of the very large meeting of people to decide who goes to Disney on what day. And all this for a total of, how many seconds of thrills on rides?
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bronxboy55
May 25, 2013
I’ve never done the calculations, Bruce, but it’s a lot of hours of waiting on lines for a few minutes of controlled terror.
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Lady from Manila
May 27, 2013
Do some people have more luck than others? I believe so. I’ve encountered customers at my job who keep on winning (except for the jackpot prize) in contrast to the ones who couldn’t get lucky – not even a single chance. You’re right about a selected few who won the 1st prize more than once, too. I wouldn’t dare find an explanation for that – because I remember studying probability as one branch of a Mathematics subject in high school, and it drove me bonkers. 🙂
The appeal of amusement parks baffle me. I went to a huge Disneyland in another Asian country and I just sat it out the whole day. No desire to fall in line for hours for a few minutes ride (which could turn out unpleasant or nerve-wracking). Yet I watched in awe as people passed by in droves and waited under the sun for their “thrill”.
And what’s the probability I haven’t been missing my dearest blogger pal? Don’t ask. I’m glad to be back here anyway. 🙂
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bronxboy55
May 28, 2013
I think I’m also done with amusement parks. I used to look forward to a day of sun, rides, and eating junk. Now I’d dread it. Well, except for the junk.
I’m glad you’re here, too.
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Lady from Manila
May 30, 2013
I was about to add a lengthier, incidental comment that should better end up in formal missive but it’s difficult to reach you thru email so I posted it in an older blog post of yours. When you get the time, please read it. Thanks, dearest pal.
Eh, you sometimes know me better than I know myself :-). The truth is, I’ve missed you more than words can say.
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Wyrd Smythe
June 24, 2013
Wikipedia actually is an extremely reliable source for highly technical matters like atomic fission and what goes on in stars. On the flip side, the interweb has become a mess of people asking questions and people guessing at the answers. Most of those “answer” websites are pure crap — worthless — and they fill the web with garbage.
I’ve been watching this show on the MLB network that sets up a conflict between “old school” baseball (the “gut”) and “new school” baseball (sabremetrics, huzzah). I’m liking the show less and less for pushing the conflict (because people just love them some conflict on TV) and for not seeking common ground. The reality is that most combine the gut and the numbers — there is no real conflict (“nothing to see here, folks, move along”).
One thing they constantly confuse on that show is the difference between using stats for analytic analysis versus using them for predictive analysis. It’s one thing to say that, over time, on average, X number of people visit WDW every day. It’s a completely different matter to say that, today X number of people will visit. Depending on the variation of the average, you might be close or you might be way off.
Analytic analysis can be extremely accurate. Predictive analysis… well, when was the last time the weather people really got it right?
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bronxboy55
June 29, 2013
The difference between analytic and predictive analysis is sometimes what causes people to give up after hearing a dismal medical diagnosis. The fact that seventy-five percent of people with the same illness die within twelve months doesn’t mean any specific individual with the same diagnosis has only a twenty-five percent chance of living more than a year. I think doctors should have to take an advanced course in probability.
The last accurate weather forecast where I live was in 1998. November, I think.
Where are you in the countdown?
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Wyrd Smythe
June 29, 2013
Countdown completed! 😀
Weather is even harder, since you’ve got that whole chaos mathematics thing going. Start with calculations guaranteed to drift further and further from reality with each cycle and then stick a probability cherry on the top. The wonder is they ever get it right!
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